Seems like an innocent question, but when it comes to projecting the performance of some of the world's major manufacturers of PCs, such as Hewlett-Packard (ticker: HPQ), Acer (ACEIF), Dell (DELL), and Lenovo (LNGVY), it's an important one.
The scenario resembles the one that held sway after netbooks were introduced a couple of years ago. Analysts weren't quite sure whether to consider them full-blown notebook PCs or a separate category. The smaller, cheaper, stripped-down netbooks wreaked havoc with profit-margin projections for personal computers. But eventually, most everyone concluded that netbooks belonged in the personal-computer category.
Barclays Capital hardware analyst Ben Reitzes argues that "media tablets," as he calls the iPad and its existing and coming rivals, eventually will be put into the personal-computer column. Because these products tend to be hybrids—part consumer-electronics gadget, part mobile-wireless device and part personal computer—it could be argued that they should simply fall into one of those categories, say, mobile-wireless device or entertainment gadget.
But Reitzes says that consumers, who bought three million iPads in the first three months they were available, are buying the Apple (AAPL) tablets in lieu of other personal computers. "They will cannibalize the netbook and lower-end notebook numbers. You can see it in the data," Reitzes said last week in a telephone interview.