CES 2011 a convinced me that 3D has a 70% chance of becoming mainstream consumer tech. But there’s 2 conditions: 3D will be glasses-free; and it will take 10 years, not 3.
CES in 3D 3D was big at CES. Sony was all in, with 3D from the cool Bloggie HD video camera for $250, to crisp giant rear projection screens using polarized glasses.
Every other major TV maker was also in. Accessories makers were showing 3D glasses, both the more expensive LCD shutter glasses and the simpler and cheaper polarized type - and one had a combo design.
But large screen 3D push has already failed. Sales are dismal. Vendors are realizing that there won’t be a quick transition to 3D among consumers - especially during the Great Recession.
Problem Some blame the dorky glasses and put their hope in glasses-free screens. But that isn’t the problem.
3DTV is in a chicken and egg situation. Hollywood has a steep learning curve to develop cost-effective production techniques for high quality 3D content. But where is the audience?